Population estimates in the GCC that are used by local, regional and international organisations such as the United Nations (UN) and World Bank have been found to differ by as much as 25 percent or more from the best official or authoritative estimates, revealed the study conducted by Madar Research and marketing communications consultancy Orient Planet.
The study pointed out that some countries have more than one official population estimate, with significant differences between them, as in the case of the UAE, which has conflicting population figures that are used by the UN, the UAE Federal National Council (FNC), the UAE Ministry of Economy (MoE) and the UAE Ministry of Labour.
One of the consequences of this situation is the inflated performance indicators of a country in certain statistical categories. For instance, according to the International Telecommunications Union (ITU), the UAE had the highest mobile phone penetration rate in the world in 2007 at 176.52 percent. ITU based the calculation of its indicator on a UAE population of 4.38 million (end of 2007). However, the most realistic estimate for end 2007 released by the FNC was about 6.5 million. Using the FNC’s estimate, the UAE’s mobile penetration rate would stand at 119.06 percent, dropping its ranking from number one to 16th.
Recalculating the same ITU indicator for other GCC member states reveals differences as big as 56 percentage points in Qatar, 46 in Bahrain, 16 in Kuwait, 8 in Oman and -1.58 percentage points in Saudi Arabia. Except for Saudi Arabia, mobile penetration rates as calculated by ITU, which used old population figures or underestimates, have been greatly blown up, thus unintentionally – or carelessly – giving the world the wrong or unreliable information about the mobile phone scene in the GCC.
In another example of how the use of a wrong population figure can affect a country’s world ranking, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has listed Qatar as the country with the highest GDP (PPP) per capita in the world in 2008, calculated at $ 85,868. This was based on a population of 1.1 million. However, using the official population figure of 1.45 million released by Qatar Statistics Authority for mid 2008, Qatar’s 2008 GDP (PPP) per capita becomes $65,092 or more than 24 percent lower than the IMF figure. Nonetheless, the correction would only bring down Qatar’s global ranking by one notch, allowing Luxembourg to occupy the top spot.
Explaining the reason behind the inconsistencies, Abdul Kader Kamli, President & Research Director of Madar Research Group said: “Because of the extremely high percentage of expatriate workers arriving and leaving the GCC, population figures in some countries in the region have changed sharply from one year to the next, resulting in significant distortions in the annual performance indicators such as GDP and technology adoption rates.”
“Compounding the problem is the presence of several versions of population figures and estimates from different branches of government. The first step towards resolving this issue is to appoint independent government bodies that should have the sole responsibility of regularly updating and verifying all statistical information related to the country’s population using best international practices and standards.”
The UAE, Qatar, Kuwait and Bahrain have been particularly vulnerable to inconsistencies in statistical data as these countries attract large numbers of expatriate workforce and thus have the highest annual population growth rates in the GCC and among the highest in the world.
Furthermore, while in most countries around the world part or most of these expatriate populations would turn into permanent residents and eventually naturalised, GCC countries have very restricted naturalisation laws, which allow for only a trickle of expatriate residents to gain local nationalities. According to the study, the unique population composition of exceptionally large ratio of expatriate workers to nationals presents complications that require special treatment to rectify how national performance indicators should be measured.
The current world recession is yet another factor that has resulted in changes in the population and its demographics, according to the study. For instance, many expatriate workers who had brought their families from their home countries would under the current financial crunch be forced to send them back home where life is often less costly. This trend is expected to change the age distribution, male to female ratio, among many other demographic, socioeconomic and ICT indicators.
According to the study, independent government bodies responsible for generating and regularly updating an official database of all statistics about the country’s population and various demographics has already started to be established in two or three GCC countries. The study further stated that such a government entity would also be responsible for using the proper channels to regularly communicate census results, population estimates and relevant demographic data to the United Nations and other global organisations. The body should also monitor global research reports to ensure accurate data are used.THE PENINSULA